Singapore exports plunged unexpectedly in July. This reverses a rebound seen in June. Shipments to the United States plummeted significantly.
Non-oil domestic exports (Nodx) plunged 4.6 per cent annually in July. This performance was worse than economists’ forecasts. Economists anticipated only a 1 per cent fall. Key exports to the US fell by 42.7 per cent. The US is Singapore’s single largest export market. Singapore exports plunged to this crucial market. Shipments to China decreased 12.2 per cent. Exports to Indonesia dropped 32.2 per cent.
Trade Headwinds and Tariff Concerns
This downturn follows a 12.9 per cent expansion in June. The July data suggests a payback from front-loaded orders. Orders were made to get ahead of higher US tariffs. US President Donald Trump’s tariff reprieve ended in August. Potential sectoral tariffs on semiconductors now loom. Pharmaceuticals also face significant tariff threats. DBS Bank economist Chua Han Teng noted the vulnerability. Singapore’s electronics and biomedical shipments remain exposed. They are subject to potential elevated US levies. These levies on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports are under review.
Non-electronics shipments, including pharmaceuticals, fell 6.6 per cent. Pharmaceutical exports alone declined 18.9 per cent. Petrochemicals saw a 23.4 per cent decrease. Food preparations experienced a 26.3 per cent drop. July’s performance was partly due to a high base a year ago. This was particularly true for pharmaceuticals.
Electronic product shipments increased 2.8 per cent. This was a slowdown from 8 per cent growth in the previous month. Personal computer exports surged by 80.4 per cent. Bare printed circuit boards grew 25.8 per cent. Integrated circuits, or chips, rose 8 per cent.
Economists Weigh In as Singapore’s export plunged
OCBC Bank chief economist Selena Ling commented on the situation. “The crystal ball remains murky for now as Singapore still faces a 10 per cent reciprocal tariff for exports to the US, with the bigger question being whether there will be an exemption or concessions given for potential higher tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals,” she stated. Ms Ling also highlighted the impact of potential 100 per cent semiconductor tariffs. She stated such an impact is not negligible.
Prime Minister Lawrence Wong expressed little comfort. He referred to the US 10 per cent baseline tariff rate. No one knows when the US might raise this baseline. Higher tariffs on specific industries like pharmaceuticals are possible. More trade barriers are expected globally. Small, open economies like Singapore will feel the squeeze.
EnterpriseSG maintained its 2025 key exports forecast. The forecast is at the lower end of 1 to 3 per cent. This anticipates a weaker second half of 2025. Nodx grew 7.1 per cent in the second quarter of 2025. Continued economic uncertainty could dampen demand. Sector-specific tariff risks remain a concern.
More stories: Standard Chartered sees AI-enabled talent as critical to step up national competitiveness
Guest ideas:
Selena Ling
Chief Economist & Head, Global Markets Research & Strategy
OCBC Singapore
Selena Ling, Chief Economist & Head, Global Markets Research & Strategy at OCBC Singapore, brings over two decades of extensive experience in economic and financial analysis. She has been with OCBC since August 2000, leading global markets research and strategy, and heading treasury research. Before her significant tenure at OCBC, Ms. Ling contributed to public service as an Assistant Director in the Fiscal Policy Division at Singapore’s Ministry of Finance and the Economics Division at the Ministry of Trade and Industry. An alumna of the London School of Economics and the National University of Singapore, holding a Master of Social Sciences in Applied Economics, her expertise includes policy analysis and economic research. She is also recognised as an Institute of Banking & Finance Fellow.